Why Did Putin Attack Ukraine in Retaliation for Ukrainian Aggression in Donbass but Not Azerbaijan in Retaliation of Azerbaijani Aggression Against Artsakh?

This is a perplexing question that has puzzled international relations scholars and analysts alike. The answer lies in a complex mix of geopolitical interests, resource constraints, and strategic leverage.

Resource Constraints and Strategic Overstretch

Resource Constraints and Strategic Overstretch

It’s a widely accepted view that Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has led to significant resource constraints for the country. The conflict in Ukraine is sapping Russia's military and economic resources, thus limiting its ability to engage in multiple theaters of operation simultaneously. For instance, Russia is heavily engaged in maintaining its military presence in Ukraine, which diverts significant resources that could otherwise be directed elsewhere.

The Propaganda Value of Chaos

The Propaganda Value of Chaos

DisplayName (for the sake of anonymity) also points out that Russia might use conflicts in other regions, like the one in Artsakh, for propaganda. The recent incidents in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where Azerbaijan and Armenia were in conflict, offered an opportunity for Russia to portray itself as a peacemaker. However, even after sending peacekeeping forces, tensions escalated and some Russians were reportedly killed. This continued instability has provided Russia with a narrative of intervention and justification for continued military presence in the region.

No Immediate Geopolitical Benefits in Azerbaijan

No Immediate Geopolitical Benefits in Azerbaijan

Another key factor is the lack of immediate geopolitical benefits in Azerbaijan. The Artsakh conflict, while tense, is far removed from Russia's strategic interests. There is no significant historical, cultural, or economic link between Azerbaijan and Russia that would compel Russia to intervene militarily. In contrast, Ukraine, given its historical, cultural, and strategic proximity to Russia, remains a critical interest area.

NATO's Role and the Lack of Engagement

NATO's Role and the Lack of Engagement

Furthermore, the NATO factor plays a significant role. While NATO does not recognize Ukraine as a democratic country, the organization’s influence in the region is significant. Russia’s stance towards Ukraine is deeply rooted in a desire to counter NATO's expansion in Eastern Europe. In contrast, Azerbaijan is aligned with Turkey, a NATO partner, which adds a layer of complexity. Given this alignment, Russia is wary of engaging in a direct conflict with a country that is backed by a NATO member.

Limited Strategic Interests in Artsakh

Limited Strategic Interests in Artsakh

The final factor is the limited strategic interests Russia has in Artsakh. The conflict there is primarily an internal issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it lacks the level of interest that Ukraine, with its proximity to Russia and former Soviet ties, possesses. Russia has already annexed Crimea and is seeking to strengthen its control over Donbass to bring the region closer to Moscow, rather than engaging in a longer and more costly conflict in Artsakh.

The Persecution of Donbas Residents

The Persecution of Donbas Residents

The situation in Donbass is particularly concerning for Russia. The people of Donbas, who are predominantly of Russian origin, have faced heavy weaponry from Ukrainian forces. This has led to a humanitarian crisis and a perception among many in Donbas that they are at risk. Russia’s intervention, although controversial, has been framed as a humanitarian operation to protect ethnic Russians in the region. This narrative is a key motivator for Russia's actions in the Donbass region.

In conclusion, Russia’s decision to attack Ukraine in response to Donbass aggression while not engaging in conflicts like those in Artsakh is a multifaceted strategy. It reflects a combination of resource limitations, strategic priorities, and the domestic and international narratives that influence Russia’s foreign policy decisions.