Armenia's Path: Beyond European Aspirations and Russian Influence in Karabakh Conflict

The question of Armenia's aspirations and its geopolitical alignment has been a topic of much debate, particularly in the context of recent conflicts in the South Caucasus. Some argue that Armenians have been foolhardy in not aligning more closely with Russia. However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture. Armenia's strategic decisions have been driven by a desire for democratization, economic growth, and regional stability, rather than an outright rejection of Russia.

Introduction to Armenia's Relations with Russia and Europe

Many Armenians aspire to be part of Europe or the European Union (EU). This desire stems from an admiration for the democratic values and economic benefits that membership in the EU would bring. I do not blame those who harbor such aspirations. If I were an Armenian citizen, I too would prefer the democratic EU to the autocratic Russia. To call such a preference foolish would be short-sighted and disrespectful.

Russia's Sensitivity and Armenia's Approach

Russia is highly sensitive to democratization efforts in the South Caucasus, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova. This sensitivity is rooted in the belief that democratization would eventually lead to Euro-Atlantic aspirations, which is not in Russia's interest.

It is often wrongly assumed that Armenia has turned its back on Russia. However, this is a misinterpretation of Armenia's strategic alignment. The new Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, initially advocated for a strategic alliance with the EU over Russia. However, as the leader of the revolution, Pashinyan soon realized that such a stance would be detrimental to Armenia. He took steps to disassociate the Armenian revolution from Westernization, emphasizing its internal nature and focus on democratization and economic growth rather than security guarantees from the West.

Policy and Diplomacy: Balancing Interests

Armenia's policies reflect a balanced approach to its geopolitical partners. While Armenia did not plan to fully align with NATO or Western security organizations, it sought to benefit from cooperation with both the West and Russia. Most Armenian politicians and civil society members I spoke to after the revolution expressed a keen interest in extracting as much benefit as possible from both sides.

One Armenian politician even told me, "We cannot comprehend the complementarity of Russia and the West; you are a true Georgian." They believed that while Armenia could have closer ties with the West for economic and institutional reforms, it was not a zero-sum game. Armenia hoped for economic benefits and improvements in state institutions, but not at the expense of sacrificing its relationship with Russia.

Understanding Russia's Perspective

From Russia's perspective, any state in the South Caucasus that pursues democratization and economic growth is seen as a potential threat. Russia understands that if these reforms benefit the population, they will likely want to disassociate themselves from Russia. Therefore, Russia takes a preemptive stance, viewing any move towards democratization and economic growth as hostile.

Armenia never turned its back on Russia because it is a sovereign state pursuing its own path. The Armenian people strive for dignified lives under functioning and just institutions, and they are being punished for aspiring to better living conditions. They did not turn against Russia; they simply desired a more balanced and cooperative relationship.

Conclusion: A Balanced Geopolitical Strategy

In summary, Armenia's geopolitical strategy is a path of balance and pragmatism. While some may see Armenia's preference for the EU as a form of rejecting Russia, it is more accurately characterized as a sovereign state seeking to improve its economic and political conditions without sacrificing its traditional alliances. Armenians are not fools for wanting to achieve a better life, and their aspirations should be respected and understood within the context of their complex geopolitical landscape.