Belarus’s Year-Long Evading of Ukraine War: A Closer Look

All you have to do is not order an attack. It's actually much easier staying out of wars than fighting them.

Belarus's Stance Throughout the War

The Republic of Belarus has managed to stay out of the 2022-2023 Ukraine War for an entire year, a strategic position that many observers might find puzzling. The country has maintained a neutral stance, refusing to become entangled in the conflict despite Russia’s aggressive actions. However, questions remain: Were they used by Russia as a staging ground for the first strikes into Ukraine, or did Belarus manage to avoid being drawn into the fray through sheer force of circumstance?

Was Belarus Used by Russia?

One common narrative is that Belarus was used by Russia as a staging ground for the initial strikes on Ukraine. The theory posits that Russia may have secretly deployed its forces and supplied ammunition through Belarusian territory. However, such claims have not been substantiated, and Belarusian authorities have maintained their position of neutrality throughout the conflict.

It is worth noting that if an aggressor uses your territory to carry out aggressive actions, one cannot claim to be out of the war. If Russia used Belarusian territory, Belarus would be as culpable as any other party directly engaging in hostilities.

The Role of Lukashenko and Belarusian Military

For much of the conflict, some observers expected Belarus to join forces with Russia, given the political and military ties between the two nations. Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has been the subject of much speculation and scrutiny. However, it was not until the Battle of Hostomel/Kyiv that his stance began to shift.

During the Battle of Hostomel/Kyiv, the Russian military suffered significant losses, losing thousands of “elite” soldiers and experiencing widespread panic among their ranks, including the mass exodus from the Chernobyl area. These setbacks altered Lukashenko's calculus. At that critical juncture, he was faced with a choice: allow his troops to fight in Ukraine or maintain his political power.

The Belarusian military warned Lukashenko that sending troops to fight in Ukraine would likely result in his ousting from power. This advice, combined with Russia's own setbacks, made Lukashenko more inclined to maintain his neutrality.

The Role of Belarusians Across the Border

While Belarus managed to avoid sending official military units to Ukraine, it is important to recognize that thousands of Belarusians crossed the border to join the conflict. These citizens chose to fight against what they perceived as a Russian invasion, despite their country's official stance. This phenomenon highlights the complex nature of neutrality in wartime, where individuals can independently choose to engage in conflict.

The decision of Belarus to remain neutral during this critical year in the Ukraine War is a testament to the country's strategic flexibility and the personal calculus of its leaders. While some question their motives, the actions of Belarus serve as a stark reminder that even in situations of national interest, staying out of conflict can be a formidable strategy.

Conclusion

Staying out of the Ukraine War for a year required Belarus to navigate a delicate balance of national interest, military advice, and public support. Whether viewed as a strategic choice or a reflection of cowardice, Belarus's approach provides valuable insights into the complexities of international conflict and the diverse reasons for staying neutral.