Catalonia and the Future of Independence: A Feasibility Analysis

Is another independence attempt possible for Catalonia in the future? This question has been a topic of debate for years, with various political and social factors influencing the outcome. This analysis will explore the feasibility of such an attempt, considering both historical and current events.

Historical Context: Broken Promises and Unilateral Actions

The so-called referendums for independence have often been compared to market research on shampoo brands—more symbolic exercises than actual preparations for sovereignty. Despite the perceived institutional validity, these referendums have repeatedly faced challenges and are rarely recognized internationally. As a concerned citizen, it is highly unlikely that we will see another independence attempt in Catalonia, even if some politicians continue to use it as a tool for gaining support and financial benefits from the state.

The Motivation Behind Independence Agendas

Independist politicians are driven by a dual motivation: obtaining more funds from the state and accumulating power and wealth. This focus often leads to a divisive climate within the population, exacerbating tensions and making it more difficult for the region to unite towards a common goal. The manipulation and hate-filled rhetoric used by politicians have resulted in a situation where an entire generation is suspicious of those in power and is less likely to support unilateral actions.

The Unilateral Actions Before the Pandemic

The unilateral actions taken by the separatists in the period of 2014 to 2017 can be described as “shots in the foot” for Catalonia. These actions resulted in:

Loss of capital and investment Flight of investment to other regions Loss of relevance within Spain Increased societal division 65% of those eligible to vote and 54% of casted votes have never voted for separatist agendas or parties Dual purpose elections that promised symbolic results without tangible benefits A nationalist government that overrepresents rural areas and underrepresents Barcelona and its metropolitan area

The only reason Catalonia has a nationalist government is due to a flawed and hence unjust electoral law. This law overrepresents rural and semi-rural more nationalist counties and underrepresents Barcelona and its metropolitan area. Prior to the pandemic, the separatist movement was on a downward trajectory in terms of public support and relevance.

The Catalonian Pandemic Experience and Current Sentiments

During the pandemic, Catalans have been concerned about their safety, just like every other Spanish citizen. Support for independence has plummeted, even among traditional nationalist voters. This significant shift in public opinion can be attributed to a combination of factors, including:

Unified healthcare management within the 17 regional administrations Stipulated responsibilities, including hospitals, health personnel, and epidemic prevention Central government's role in certifications, legislation, and statistics The success of the Spanish government and regional governments in managing the pandemic The strong support for the Spanish army in addressing public health crises

Central government's response to the pandemic, as well as the coordination with regional governments, has shifted the public's focus away from abstract debates on nationhood and identity. Survival instincts have compounded this shift, highlighting the tangible need for effective governance and public health measures.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

The pandemic has demonstrated the importance of effective governance and coordination between central and regional administrations. Catalans now focus on concrete issues, such as healthcare and the economy, rather than symbolic political goals. The fragmented separatist movement struggles to regain public trust, and it is highly unlikely that another independence attempt will succeed in the foreseeable future.