Do Bosnians Want the Secession of Republika Srpska? What About Bosnian Croats?

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) continues to face significant political and demographic challenges post-war. The current political division of the country is a result of the ethnic cleansing experienced in the 1990s. Let's explore the perspectives of the Bosniaks, Bosnian Serbs, and Bosnian Croats on the issue of secession and the future of BiH.

Current Political Landscape in BiH

The political landscape of BiH can be divided into two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) and Republika Srpska (RS).

FBiH: The Federation is predominantly made up of Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats, with a smaller Hutu and small Serb population. Republika Srpska (RS): This entity predominantly consists of Bosnian Serbs. It's an ethnically homogenous region, with an overwhelmingly Serb majority. The structure of RS is clearly evident from the map, where the area is beige, indicating a Serb-majority region.

In 2010, the demographic makeup of the country was even more pronounced, with Croats being the orange, Bosniaks green, and Serbs blue. This highlights the intermingling of Croats and Bosniaks, in contrast to the relatively homogeneous distribution of Serbs.

Bosniaks' Stance on Secession of Republika Srpska

Bosniaks, who comprise about 50% of the population, do not want the secession of Republika Srpska because the secession would be detrimental to their interests. Historically, Republika Srpska has been formed through ethnic cleansing, leaving a region that was historically Bosniak majority, Podrinje and the eastern part of Republika Srpska, with a predominantly Serb majority. The secession would not only diminish the territorial rights of Bosniaks but also set a dangerous precedent for other ethnic groups to follow.

The Bosniak leadership, who have a stake in the unity of BiH for their majority status, is actively pushing for a unitary state based on the principle of one man, one vote. This approach mirrors their belief that through this system, they will eventually form a majority and gain control over the state.

The historical precedent of weakened Yugoslavia, resulted in significant political and social instability, and Bosniaks are wary of repeating such a scenario. Continued unity could provide a stable foundation for their growing population and political ambitions.

Bosnian Serbs' Desire for Secession

Bosnian Serbs, who represent about 31% of the population, are largely advocating for the secession of Republika Srpska. They have been successful in achieving a significant territorial share, going from 55% in population in the 1990s to 83% now. However, their desire for secession is tempered by their war-weariness and a pragmatic approach to waiting for the right geopolitical moment to declare independence.

Currently, the broader southeastern European region is moving towards the European Union (EU), and within the EU, there would be a unification of Serb-dominated regions, including Republika Srpska and Serbia. This geopolitical shift has reduced the immediate need for unilateral secession. Moreover, such an action would not be well-received internationally, placing Serbia in a precarious position.

Bosnian Croats' Dilemma and Future

Bosnian Croats, the third significant ethnic group, make up a diverse and considerably smaller population. The break-up of Yugoslavia has significantly impacted the number of Croats in BiH, with many choosing to emigrate, leaving the population halved in the past 30 years.

The Croat community is still a key player in the political landscape. They face significant challenges, with many advocating for their rights and representation in the Federation. The Croat perspective is often deemed important because their support or opposition can help determine the future of BiH.

Currently, Bosniaks continue to choose Bosnian Croats as their representatives, which potentially drives Croats towards a more pro-Serb stance. Many Bosnian Croats lobby for a third entity within BiH, which would theoretically address their increasing marginalization. This stance aims to ensure that Croats are not overshadowed by the Bosniak majority and that they can preserve their cultural and political rights within BiH.

The solution of a third Croat entity within BiH could offer a balanced approach; it would allow for a more intermingled society and prevent the secession of Croats. Additionally, it could serve as a partial solution to majorization problems by ensuring that each ethnic group maintains its political leverage within the existing framework.

Conclusion

The political landscape of BiH is complex, with each ethnic group having its unique desires and constraints. The Bosniaks, Bosnian Serbs, and Bosnian Croats all have different views on secession, influenced by historical, demographic, and geopolitical factors. While there are ongoing efforts to maintain the unity of BiH, the future of the country remains uncertain, as each group seeks to secure their interests and the future of their respective communities.