Introduction

On February 24, 2022, a significant shift in world dynamics unfolded as Russian President Putin launched the so-called 'special military operation' in Ukraine, marking a new chapter in modern conflicts. This article delves into Putin's strategic missteps, the unfolding disaster in Mariupol, and the evolving tactics of coercion employed by Russian forces.

Putin's Initial Plan

In a decisive move that shocked the world, Putin declared, 'I made a decision to conduct a special military operation in Ukraine' on February 24, 2022, appealing to Ukrainian military commanders to 'take power into your own hands!' He went on to offer a stark choice between dealing with a corrupt 'gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis' or a more palatable Russian option (see Russian invasion of Ukraine).

Russian propaganda attempted to capitalize on this narrative, suggesting that integration into Russia was what Ukrainians had always dreamed of. However, when this did not materialize, Putin resorted to his usual method of 'beating the enemy into submission,' a proud Russian term for 'forcing into peace.' Methods such as the bombing of residential buildings, shopping centers, schools, and hospitals were employed, a strategy reminiscent of past actions in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria.

Failure and Escalation

The plan faced significant setbacks early in the conflict. Since capturing Mariupol in May 2022, after a grueling three-month siege, Russian forces have struggled to make any substantial progress. The destructive actions, particularly in Mariupol, were not just tactical but a deliberate message intended to instill fear and deter resistance. Russian propagandists openly discussed their intentions to repeat the devastation in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odessa.

Strategic Retreat and Relentless Coercion

The revocation of plans to convince Ukrainian military to switch sides and the latest calls for troops to turn weapons against the 'Kyiv regime' or surrender, signal a strategic retreat. These actions by Maria Zakharova, speaker of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, underscore Putin's inability to devise a viable exit strategy. The strategy of targeting civilians and infrastructure continues, driven by a desperate attempt to break Ukrainian resistance.

Consequences and Future Outlook

As the war drags on, the cost continues to mount, rendering further escalation unaffordable for Russia. Recruitment methods like police raids on migrants to send to the war front highlight the deepening crisis. Without a comprehensive plan to end the conflict, Russia faces the prospect of indefinite warfare or massive internal mobilization, both of which carry significant risks, including the possibility of internal upheaval.

Conclusion

Putin's approach reflects a pattern of ineffective strategies and escalating violence. The Russian strategy, from initial promises of peace to the current phase of forced submission, indicates a leader grappling with an indefensible and unwinnable conflict. As the situation in Mariupol and Bakhmut remains fluid, the future of Russia's Ukrainian invasion hinges on Putin's ability to recognize and accept that the current path is unsustainable. The formula for success lies not in further aggression but in peaceful negotiations and political solutions.