Putin’s Nuclear Threat: A Misguided All-or-Nothing Gambit

The prospect of President Putin of Russia opting for a drastic and destructive course of action presents a daunting scenario. While many may laugh at the feasibility of such an act, the reality is far more complex and potentially catastrophic. This article delves into the question of whether Putin could realistically wield nuclear weapons and the consequences of such an action.

The Unlikelihood of a Nuclear Retaliatory Strike

It is important to dispel the notion that Putin has the capability to unleash a full-scale nuclear attack on the United States and other NATO countries through a simple action. The intricate and multi-layered launch procedures, security measures, and the cooperative nature of the Russian military make such an event highly improbable. Here’s a step-by-step analysis:

Complexity of Launch Procedures

Nuclear Launch Procedures: Contrary to the Hollywood stereotype of a simple suitcase with a big red button, the Russian nuclear arsenal is governed by stringent security protocols. The launch of nuclear weapons requires coded launch orders, verified through a chain of command. The 'football' (known as the 'Barkhan' in Russia) is a device carried by military officers that contains secure communication channels allowing the President to authorize a nuclear strike. Even with this device, the launch process involves numerous layers of verification and approval, not a solitary decision.

Security Measures and Verifications

Security Measures: In the event of a perceived or actual attack, the onus is on Putin to verify the legitimacy of the threat. If NATO or any other entity were to launch a strike, Putin’s first order of business would be to ascertain the authenticity of the attack. The Russian military has dedicated units for monitoring and verifying such communications, ensuring that any incorrect or fabricated orders are swiftly countered.

Multiple Verifications: Putin would need to consult with numerous military and intelligence officials, and obtain the necessary approvals at various levels of military command. Any discrepancy, even the smallest, would result in immediate disqualification of the launch command. This complex verification process is designed to prevent accidental or unauthorized launches, rendering the scenario highly improbable.

The Russian Military's Reluctance

Military Resistance: The Russian military, despite its perceived obsolescence, remains a powerful force. Any attempt to launch an unauthorized nuclear strike would face resistance from within. The military culture is deeply instilled with a respect for authority and protocol, and soldiers would not hesitate to defy an order they deemed irrational or illegitimate. The Russian military’s hierarchy is structured to prevent such actions, as it would lead to severe repercussions, including potential impeachment of the President.

The Consequences of a Nuclear Retaliatory Strike

Should Putin decide to take this drastic step, the repercussions would be catastrophic, not just for Russia but for the entire world. NATO’s missile defense systems (Aegis and GMD) and submarines would be tasked with intercepting as many incoming missiles as possible, although the success rate of such efforts would be limited. Even with limited interdictions, the impact would be traumatic:

The Initial Devastation

Immediate Destruction: In just 20 to 90 minutes, a significant number of strategic nuclear warheads would be launched, targeting major cities and military installations worldwide. This would result in the immediate destruction of infrastructure and loss of life on a catastrophic scale. We are not talking about a distant future; just 5 to 10 minutes from launch to impact, major urban centers would be in flames.

The Long-term Impact

Global Chaos: The aftermath of a nuclear strike would bring the world to its knees. The internet, smartphones, electricity, clean water, and stable food and medical supplies would become scarce commodities. Life as we know it would come to a grinding halt, leading to a post-apocalyptic scenario.

Global Empires and New Power Structures

Post-Apocalyptic World: Major powers such as South America and Africa might emerge as new superpowers. These regions would be less affected by the nuclear strikes and would retain a significant portion of their infrastructure and population. However, this newfound power would come at the cost of escalating conflicts within these regions, as the stability of their governments would be severely compromised.

Conclusion

The scenario of Putin deciding to use nuclear weapons as a form of retaliation or suicide is highly improbable. The Russian military’s structure, security measures, and protocols are designed to prevent such a catastrophic action. Any attempt to launch an unauthorized strike would face significant resistance and verification, rendering the action extremely unlikely. However, even the mere threat of a nuclear strike carries significant global ramifications, underscored by the need for continued vigilance and diplomatic efforts to maintain international peace and stability.