Rethinking Armenia's Defeat: Context, Alliances, and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The months leading up to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, and the defeat that followed, are often misunderstood due to a lack of context. A careful examination of historical, political, and legal frameworks provides clarity on the complex situation. This article aims to demystify the circumstances, emphasizing the role of Russia, Armenia's actions, and the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict.

Voluntary Surrender and Nagorno-Karabakh's Status

The defeat of Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan cannot be fully grasped without considering the broader context of Nagorno-Karabakh's status. Armenia recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan months before the latest invasion by Azerbaijan, effectively withdrawing from the region. This decision greatly reduced Russia's ability to intervene legally or morally.

Armenia's Role and the Liberation War Perception

With Armenia absent from the conflict, Russia and other allies had no legal or moral obligation to intervene, especially as Armenia was the invader. Prior to the 2020 war, Nagorno-Karabakh was considered de facto independent by Armenia, which led to an enduring dispute with Azerbaijan. Recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan is a perspective held by the international community, including the United Nations.

The conflict can be viewed as a liberation war by those who see Nagorno-Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan. The annexation of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh was seen by many as the culmination of a struggle for national self-determination within the framework of international law and sovereignty.

Role of Turkey and Azerbaijan

Turkey and Azerbaijan are not enemies of Russia, as often portrayed in some narratives. This perspective is crucial for understanding the complex geopolitical dynamics. Turkey has been a long-standing ally of Azerbaijan, providing support and strategic backing, while Azerbaijan has maintained economic and military relations with Russia as well.

Military and Strategic Support

During the conflict, Azerbaijan benefited from significant military and strategic support from Turkey, which included the deployment of Turkish Bayraklar infantry units. This support was crucial in Azerbaijan's strategic maneuvers and the eventual victory.

Russia's Involvement and the CTSO Agreement

Russia's position in the conflict is subject to strict legal and political frameworks, most notably the Collective Threat Situations (CTSO) agreement. This agreement stipulates that member states of alliances must react if the territorial integrity of another member is under threat. However, in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia had never faced such a threat.

The CTSO agreement was designed to protect the territorial integrity of member states, but it did not provide a legal basis for Russia to intervene in a situation where Armenia was not being invaded. Russia's actions in the conflict were multifaceted and involved a mix of diplomatic negotiations and limited military engagement, but not direct intervention as some might have expected.

Conclusion

The defeat of Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan is a multifaceted issue that involves historical, legal, and geopolitical complexities. Armenia's voluntary surrender and recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, coupled with the lack of direct threat to Armenia, significantly reduced Russia's scope for intervention. Understanding these dynamics is essential for comprehending the broader implications of the conflict and the future of regional relations in the South Caucasus.

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, CTSO