The Amish Population: Will It Ever Exceed the Non-Amish?

America’s population grew rapidly in the 19th century due to traditionally high fertility rates, largely witnessed during a period dominated by small family sizes. This period saw a culture that promoted early marriage and large families, a stark contrast to today's standard. In that era, birth control would have been considered absurd.

Cultural and Demographic Changes

As colonies settled, they primarily relied on natural growth, with foreign-born populations seldom exceeding 10%. Significant immigration events, such as the early 18th-century settlement in Pennsylvania and the late 18th-century movement to Georgia and the Borderlands, occurred through internal migration rather than international immigration. During the 19th century, American women gave birth to 7–8 children on average, a fertility rate that dropped to about 3.5 children at the turn of the 20th century. This led to more open and restrictive immigration policies aimed at Europeans.

The Amish, however, have maintained their high fertility rate, continuing to average 7–8 children. This cultural practice is deeply rooted in their religious and social norms, making it highly unlikely that this pattern will change in the near future.

Cultural Insulation and Demographic Stability

The Amish are known for maintaining strong cultural boundaries. Unlike other religious groups, the Amish do not actively seek to convert others, which reduces the likelihood of external influences affecting their way of life. Their distinct cultural practices, including their reluctance to adopt modern technology outside of necessary tools, further insulates them from mainstream American values.

Despite their isolation, the Amish population's growth potential is significant. With advances in modern medicine and the decline of infant mortality, the survival rates of children are much higher than in previous centuries. If the current trend continues, and children are more likely to grow into parents themselves, the Amish population could experience unprecedented growth.

Future Projections and Potential Outcomes

Considering the unique fertility rate and cultural stability of the Amish, it is possible that their numbers would continue to grow rapidly. If they continue to adhere to their traditional values and practices, it could lead to a situation where the Amish population surpasses the non-Amish population. This projection, however, hinges on several factors, including their willingness to maintain current practices and adapt to new challenges.

In conclusion, while the Amish have shown remarkable demographic stability over the centuries, their adherence to traditional values and high fertility rates position them as a unique demographic group. As more information and cultural changes are introduced, it remains to be seen if the Amish will continue to maintain their distinctive population growth trajectory.