The Impact of Timing on the 9/11 Attacks: A Closer Look

The timing of the attacks on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001, played a significant role in the number of casualties. If the attacks had happened at 1:00 am instead of 8:46 am, the impact would have been vastly different. This article explores the scenario and the potential outcomes if the planes had struck the towers at that later hour.

The Population of the World Trade Center at 1:00 am

At 1:00 am, the World Trade Center would have been thinly populated with various staff members, including maintenance workers, typists, photocopy clerks, security personnel, and international communications and trading staff. The towers would have seen a much lower number of occupants compared to a typical weekday, likely numbering around 5,000 workers at the time of the attacks if the 1993 bombing is any indication.

Comparison with a Typical Day

In contrast, at 1:00 pm, the World Trade Center would have been teeming with workers, reaching a population of 50,000. This significant increase in occupants means that a large number of people would have been inside the building during the actual 9/11 attacks. According to the New York City Fire Department (FDNY), it took four hours for survivors to evacuate the towers in the 1993 bombing. This suggests that even with a strategic response, substantial challenges would have been faced to evacuate everyone.

Potential Casualties at a Later Attack Time

The 9/11 Commission Report by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) indicates that 18,000 people were in the towers at the time of the attacks. Of the 15,000 civilians under the impact zones, all but about 100 managed to evacuate successfully. If the attacks had occurred at 1:00 am and the towers were fully populated, it is likely that between 20,000 and 30,000 people would have been stuck on the stairs when the building collapsed. This scenario would have resulted in a significant increase in the number of fatalities, possibly as many as 10,000 more.

Strategic Considerations for Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda chose to attack the World Trade Center at 8:46 am, and the timing had clear strategic benefits for the Bush administration. With 3,000 deaths, the government faced calls from 400 families for answers, whereas with 30,000 deaths, a much larger number of families would have demanded justice. This timing allowed the administration to present the tragedy as one of unprecedented but potentially manageable loss, avoiding the complexity and demands for accountability that would have resulted from a higher death toll.

Conclusion

The timing of the 9/11 attacks was a crucial factor in the overall outcome. A later attack would have resulted in significantly more casualties and added layers of difficulty in the evacuation process. The strategic timing by Al Qaeda was a well-calculated move that aimed to minimize the political and social ramifications of the attacks.

For further reading on the 9/11 attacks, building evacuations, and the strategic planning behind the events, explore sources such as the 9/11 Commission Report, the National Archives, and academic papers on skyscraper evacuations and disaster response.