The Policy Consequences of a Sustained Global Decline in Population

I don’t believe there has ever been a sustained global decrease in human population, Johnny. Many other creatures have had significant declines. In fact, we are now seeing a higher number of extinctions than any time in human history. The primary cause is the loss of habitat. There have been minor policy adjustments toward mitigating the Sixth Great Extinction, which could easily include humans in the long run. None of those adjustments have made much difference. Balance would require a major reduction in human impact through reduced consumption and no more population growth. Some decline in human population levels would undoubtedly be good for the planet if managed in a sensible manner.

Environmental Benefits

The biggest consequence is that if we can decrease the population enough and fast enough, humanity might survive. That would be environmentally beneficial, but economically disastrous because there would be no younger generations supporting the older/elderly populations. There would also be no younger workforce to assist in the economic development of the nation or country.

It would surely be good for the natural world—the world that was here before us and that we have half destroyed. But it does not seem to be happening anytime soon. The last time I looked, the human population was still growing, albeit very slowly. The Covid-19 pandemic will make a tiny drop, which will soon be made up by new births. Of course changes in lifestyle and consumption have a large effect on the environment. The pandemic has brought temporary reduction in human waste production and emission of noxious gases.

Global Policy Consequences

Generally, once you have a world population that is falling fast enough for there to be any policy consequences, the overall consequence is a policy focus on the personal survival of those setting policy. The trend with developed nations experiencing various demographic and economic woes due to an aging population that is below replacement fertility is deceptive. Yes, those particular nations are experimenting with policy modifications to address their problems caused by the particular manner in which their population is falling.

But when the world population stops increasing and starts to decline, that is not a global problem that can usefully be addressed above the national policy level. The national policy level will still be focused on fixing the national problems that arise from their particular form of population decline. When the decline in global populations reaches the rate at which it will begin to indicate a global problem, the decline will be due to a sharp increase in deaths from causes that indicate a widespread breakdown of civilization and social order. During a breakdown in social order, policymakers are attractive targets for violence.

A global breakdown in social order means a very large amount of potential violence directed at policymakers, especially global policymakers. So those policymakers are going to focus their policy making on making policies to help them escape the rising violence against policymakers.