The State of US Presidential Race: Why Joe Biden Leads Trump

As the final stretch of the 2020 US presidential campaign approaches, the polls reflect a clear shift in the balance of power. Joe Biden has maintained a lead over Donald Trump for the past few weeks, with multiple indicators pointing towards a decisive victory for the Democratic nominee.

How is Trump Performing in the Polls?

Trump's performance in the polls has been consistently poor, though not as dire as many anticipated a few weeks ago. Despite his aggressive rhetoric and several contentious actions, Trump's lead has not improved, remaining at a disadvantage against Biden.

Popular Vote Trends

The popular vote shows Biden leading by an average of 9 percentage points across various polling organizations. Some sources, such as Rasmussen, which is known to favor Republicans, show Biden leading by 3 points. Even with this caveat, the trend remains strongly favorable for Biden.

Swing State Performance

In the critical swing states, Biden has maintained a consistent lead. According to the latest data, he is ahead by 0.3 to 12 points, with only Ohio and Texas showing a narrow lead for Trump. This suggests that these battleground states are likely to tip solidly in Biden's favor.

Simulations and Projections

Several reputable simulation models, such as FiveThirtyEight, project that Trump's chances of winning are around 10%. This low likelihood is largely driven by the overwhelming support Biden currently enjoys in key electoral states.

Campaign Strategies and Upcoming Challenges

In response to the unfavorable polls, Republicans have resorted to aggressive tactics aimed at suppressing voter turnout. These efforts include challenges to the effectiveness of the US Postal Service in delivering ballots, legal maneuvers to block late votes, and the deployment of armed "election observers" to intimidate minority voters at polling stations.

Voter Suppression Efforts

The Republican strategy is a desperate attempt to manipulate the electoral process. They are lobbying for the postal service to delay ballots and pushing courts to rule in their favor or against recounts. These measures are aimed at discrediting the mail-in voting process and ensuring a victory for Trump even if the polls do not reflect this reality.

Joe Biden: Integrity and Leadership

A central figure in the current political landscape is Joe Biden, who embodies integrity and a strong commitment to protecting America's democratic institutions. Biden has a storied career, marked by a series of both bold and compromising actions to navigate the complexities of American politics.

Joe Biden's Record on Busing and School Desegregation

Biden's history with school desegregation highlights his constant adaptation to political pressures. Initially, as a senator from Delaware in the 1970s, he was an outspoken proponent of busing to achieve desegregation. However, as the political climate shifted, he adapted his stance to align with his constituents. This shift from advocating for busing to opposing it, while controversial, underscores his willingness to align with the majority, even if it means backing away from a principled position.

One of the most discussed aspects of Biden's record is his 1977 quote where he said, 'I don’t want my kids growing up in a 'racial jungle.' This quote has become a focal point of discussion, highlighting the political compromises he has made. Despite the controversy, Biden continues to defend his actions, emphasizing his dedication to the overall goal of reducing racial tension.

Future Plans and Foreign Policy

Beyond domestic issues, Biden's vision includes a strong focus on foreign policy. He pledges to reverse Trump's controversial policy agenda and pursue a more cooperative and diplomatic approach. One notable example is the recent normalization of relations between Israel and Sudan, a landmark agreement aimed at fostering economic ties and enhancing regional stability.

Normalization of Israeli-Sudanese Relations

This agreement, which follows similar deals between Israel and other Gulf nations, marks a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The normalization process is expected to be an ongoing negotiation, covering a broad spectrum of areas including agriculture, economy, trade, and aviation. This development is seen as a positive move towards greater stability in the region.

Conclusion

As the election approaches, the political landscape remains volatile. However, the current polling data and Biden's strong performance in key swing states make a Biden victory seem increasingly likely. While challenges from Republicans are certain to arise, Biden's consistent lead and supportive voter base suggest a high probability of electoral success.