Who is Azerbaijan's Biggest Threat: Armenia, Iran, or Russia?

When considering Azerbaijan's security and its immediate challenges, the competition among potential adversaries appears to be a complex and multifaceted issue. This article explores the primary threats faced by Azerbaijan, focusing on Armenia, Iran, and Russia, and provides a preliminary analysis based on historical and geopolitical contexts.

Armenia: The Persistent Threat

Armenia emerges as the most pressing threat to Azerbaijan due to its historical and ongoing involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The conflict began in the 1980s, and while there have been periods of relative stability through ceasefire agreements, tensions between the two countries have not completely subsided. The historical land disputes and the strategic significance of the Nagorno-Karabakh region continue to fuel ongoing tensions.

Militating in favor of Armenia's stance, the influence of Russia cannot be understated. Russia has a significant presence in Armenia, including military installations and strategic agreements. This relationship ensures that Armenia is not without substantial backing, making its actions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region particularly difficult for Azerbaijan to deter or manage. However, it is essential to note that Armenia's intensions and capabilities are significantly influenced by its reliance on Russian support.

Iran: A Bordering Neighbor without Immediate Threat

Despite having strained relations with Azerbaijan, Iran does not present an immediate military threat. Historical enmity and contemporary political tensions notwithstanding, Iran has no territorial ambitions towards Azerbaijan. Moreover, the geopolitical dynamics between Iran and Azerbaijan suggest that direct military conflict is unlikely. Nevertheless, Iran's influence in the region, particularly in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and Iran's support for proxy groups, could pose indirect challenges.

Russia: A Geopolitical Superpower

Emerging as a potential threat, Russia's influence in the region is undeniable. Azerbaijan gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but the lingering historical and geopolitical relationships with Russia continue to complicate its position today. Russia's aggressive military actions in neighboring countries, such as the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and the 2014 annexation of Crimea, highlight its willingness to use military power to achieve its geopolitical objectives. While direct military engagement with Azerbaijan is less probable, Russia can still exert influence through economic sanctions, regional alliances, and strategic partnerships.

The Complexity of Immediate Threats

The immediate threat to Azerbaijan is primarily attributed to Armenia, given the historical land disputes and ongoing conflict. While Iran and Russia present challenges through their political and military postures, systematic conflict with them is less likely in the short term. However, the interaction between these factors can complicate Azerbaijan's strategic calculus, necessitating a nuanced approach to security and foreign policy.

Conclusion

Azerbaijan's security landscape is multifaceted, with Armenia emerging as the foremost immediate threat. The historical context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenia's reliance on Russian support provide a robust foundation for understanding the current dynamics. However, while Iran and Russia present significant geopolitical challenges, the likelihood of direct military confrontation is lower. It is imperative for Azerbaijan to develop a comprehensive and strategic approach to mitigate these threats, ensuring regional stability and security.