Why No Vote of No Confidence Against the UK Prime Minister and the Conservative Party Has Occurred Yet

It seems paradoxical, given the current political landscape, that a vote of no confidence has not yet happened against the UK Prime Minister and the Conservative Party. A majority of -43 indicates a formality. However, the path to a new government is fraught with obstacles. We will explore the reasons why a vote hasn't happened and the potential consequences if it does.

Obstacles to a New Government

Post a vote of no confidence, if the current government cannot be replaced by a new one within 14 days, it would trigger a general election. This scenario might be averted for several reasons:

Lack of a viable replacement government: Currently, there is no agreement on an interim leader who can command cross-party support. The Liberal Democrats and some ex-Tories might be amenable, but even the Scottish National Party (SNP) would want another referendum on Scottish independence. Political Standoff: The opposition is offering Boris Johnson the chance to secure a new deal, thus delaying a vote of no confidence. Additionally, they have yet to agree on who would be the interim PM, adding to the complexity. Cowardice: Some argue that political parties are avoiding a vote of no confidence due to fear of a general election. In September, the opposition declined the chance of a general election, highlighting a lack of courage in taking decisive action.

Polling Outlook and Brexit Concerns

Pollsters like YouGov, Kantar, and Ipsos predict a Conservative majority ranging from 10 to 80 seats. A Labour majority is unlikely, suggesting a comfortable Conservative win. This scenario would involve:

Conservatives: Winning with a majority between 10 to 80 seats. Labours: On around 213 seats. Lib Dems: Around 33 seats. SNP: Around 51 seats.

Given this stable forecast, a vote of no confidence without the prospect of forming a new government would not effectively halt Brexit. The opposition's goal in voting against the government would likely be to delay any further moves on Brexit.

Political Strategy and Public Interest

Importantly, tying the entire Brexit mess around Johnson, Gove, and Rees-Mogg’s necks before a vote of no confidence or a general election is crucial. If they are cornered and forced into a position where they cannot deliver on their promises, the in or out issue will be driven by vested interests rather than the collective public interest.

Parliamentary inaction on Leave plans thus far underscores this need. By maintaining the status quo, any new leadership will inherit a complex and unresolved situation, making it challenging to chart a clear path forward for the UK.