Will Georgia Ever Reacquire Abkhazia and/or South Ossetia?

Often referred to as breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are territories considered illegally occupied by Georgia. Their status remains complex, with various factors influencing their future. This article delves into the geopolitical challenges and possible outcomes surrounding the reacquisition of these regions, based on factors such as military, diplomatic, and historical perspectives.

The Irregular Status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Abkhazia and South Ossetia are territories that, although recognized by a few countries as independent, are considered occupied by Russia according to Georgia. These regions were invaded and occupied by Russia in August 2008, following a conflict that escalated tensions between the two countries.

Georgia has repeatedly emphasized that it considers Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be part of its sovereign territory, but these regions have been under Russian control since then. The term 'reacquisition' is more accurately described as 'liberation' or 'regaining' from military occupation, given that the regions were not genuinely controlled by Georgia before the Russian intervention.

According to international law, the practical obstacles to reacquisition include the need for comprehensive diplomatic efforts, genuine preparedness, and a well-executed strategy. Currently, Georgia focuses on internal development and regional cooperation while waiting for a favorable geopolitics to shift the balance in its favor.

Diplomatic Challenges and Restrictions

Reacquiring Abkhazia and South Ossetia is not a matter of simple military action. The primary tools at Georgia's disposal are diplomacy, and there are several restrictive factors that complicate this process. The recognition of the governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by other nations is a key prerequisite for successful diplomatic engagement. Ukraine, Moldova, and several other countries in the region have not recognized these governments, thereby limiting Georgia's options.

Moreover, the presence of significant Russian military bases in the region and the surrounding area presents a formidable challenge. Any attempts to reacquire these territories would likely lead to armed conflict, which is not a viable option given the current geopolitical climate and the potential for wider international involvement.

The Future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains uncertain. Experts and analysts have differing views on their possible outcomes. Many believe that it is just a matter of time before Georgia achieves its goal, largely through the tireless efforts of the younger generation.

However, on a more pessimistic note, both Ossetians and Abkhaz have a deep-rooted enmity towards Georgians, which has been exacerbated by the prolonged conflict. South Ossetia, in particular, is more likely to seek reunification with North Ossetia, a Russian territory, thereby becoming part of the Russian Federation. This would significantly constrain Georgia's ambitions of reacquiring these regions.

For Abkhazia, the sentiment towards joining Russia is also quite strong, with limited recognition from the international community. While Georgia hopes for a reunion, there is no significant movement from the Abkhaz side to voluntarily return to Georgian sovereignty. Ideally, Abkhazia would remain a de facto independent country heavily dependent on Russian support.

The Role of Russia and Historical Context

The position of Russia plays a crucial role in these aspirations. Russia’s stance on these territories has been firm, with no plans to cede control. The Russian annexation of these regions is seen by both Russia and the local populations as a rational move to prevent the regions from becoming part of Georgian territory.

Historically, Georgia's absorption into the Russian Empire was a voluntary act, not an annexation. Therefore, the idea that Georgia should reclaim its territory against the will of its current inhabitants is considered by many to be a misinterpretation of history and international law. Other countries with similar historical contexts, such as Ukraine, have also not been compelled to return land to their historical owners.

It is important to note that the international community widely supports the territorial integrity of nations and the principle of self-determination for peoples. The case of Georgia and its aspirations to reacquire Abkhazia and South Ossetia highlights the complexities and challenges involved in resolving long-standing territorial disputes.