Will Kanhaiya Kumar Win the MP Election in Begusarai in 2019?

Though the 2019 Lok Sabha election outcome has already been determined, the 2019 MP election in Begusarai remains a topic of substantial interest and speculation. Beyond just politics, the contest between Kanhaiya Kumar and his rivals, including Giriraj Singh and Tanveer Hassan, reflects a broader dichotomy in Indian society: support for Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) versus opposition to his administration.

The Political Context and Contenders

Let's explore the contest more deeply. Kanhaiya Kumar, a champion of left-wing ideologies and a former JNU student leader, is contesting the elections from a Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) perspective. He is seen as a symbol of anti-Modi sentiment and has a deep connection to the Begisarai constituency. However, his campaign faces significant hurdles, not least of which is the massive support for the BJP and its allies.

Giriraj Singh, a well-known BJP candidate, currently holds the seat, and Tanveer Hassan of the RJD (Railway Janata Dal) are his key opponents. Their presence underscores the highly competitive nature of the race.

Historical Voting Trends in Begusarai

The history of voting in Begusarai is rich with changes reflecting shifts in voter allegiance. Bhola Singh, a BJP candidate, won the seat in 2014, followed by Dr. Mona Hassan of JDU in 2009. Notably, the JDU (Janata Dal United) has a strong association with the BJP, adding another layer of complexity to the contest.

The 2015 assembly elections revealed similar patterns. While the BJP and its allies took a strong position, the communists, represented by Kanhaiya Kumar, failed to secure any seats. This analysis suggests that victory in Begusarai will likely go to Giriraj Singh, who enjoys the backing of a significant portion of the electorate.

Communist Movement and Historical Struggles

Begisarai has a rich history of political struggle, particularly during the communist movement in the early and mid-20th century. The region was known for its strong leftist factions, with notable victories such as the 1967 Lok Sabha election when Yogendra Sharma won on behalf of the CPI.

However, the current political landscape is vastly different. The communist movement in Begusarai has faced challenges, with efforts to reclaim lost ground through Kanhaiya Kumar. While the ideological appeal remains, historical and demographic factors now heavily favor the right-wing factions.

Modi Factor and Its Impact

The Modi Factor is a crucial element in any analysis of Indian elections. While Kanhaiya Kumar's anti-Modi stance is significant, it comes up against the reality of a fragmented left-wing vote and the support of major right-wing parties such as the BJP and JDU. The communal and nationalist narratives espoused by the BJP have resonated strongly with a significant portion of Begusarai's electorate.

In Conclusion

In sum, while Kanhaiya Kumar presents a strong, symbolically powerful candidacy, the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Begusarai appears to favor Gujarat-based candidates like Giriraj Singh. The political dynamics and historical context point to a likely victory for Singh, whose party and allies will garner the majority of the vote in this constituency.